THERE'S a chill in the air what with the cold sweeping through Bihar. But the chill has an undercurrent, the undercurrent of people's anger spilling on to the streets after the death of three innocent students in an alleged fake encounter in Patna on 29 December.

Incensed at the "cold blooded" murder of Prasant, Vikas and Himanshu at the hands of the police, the protestors burnt about 100 vehicles and torched countless public and private installations during the bandhs on 31 December and 3 January. Opposition parties have been organising protests, demonstrations and other agitational programmes to keep the fire burning. NDA leaders, particularly those like George Fernandes, visualise a recurrence of the 1974 movement in the mass anger following the killing of the three promising youths. Fernandes, who was himself a front-ranking leader in the 70s' movement, air-dashed to Patna from New Delhi on 2 February to launch a "1974 type movement" for the removal of the "corrupt and anarchist Laloo-Rabri regime."

Eager to dislodge the Laloo-Rabri regime since long, NDA leaders find a "God sent" opportunity in the sudden eruption of mass protest against police brutality to fulfil their long cherished dream.

But do the NDA leaders have the required credibility to galvanise the people's anger into a full-scale mass movement culminating into the ouster of the Laloo-Rabri regime the way the 1974 movement culminated into the ouster of Indira Gandhi? Will the likes of George Fernandes, Sushil Kumar Modi, Sharad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan eventually succeed in executing a change of regime in the state?

Political observers are pondering over these questions in the wake of the conflagration engulfing the state. But they are wary of hazarding the guess that the BJP and NDA brand of leaders will succeed in capitalising on this mass upsurge to have their way in Bihar. And there are obvious reasons, which dissuade the observers from predicting the success of the NDA against the RJD regime.

The observers find Fernandes's comparison of the present mass upsurge against police brutality with the 1974 movement led by Jaiprakash Narayan as "childish". It's because the people angry at Indira Gandhi's dictatorial regime had the Lok Nayak Jaiprakash Narayan to fall back upon. And the Lok Nayak was not a greedy power seeker. His image was built on the basis of his selfless sacrifice for the nation. And he enjoyed the trust of the people cutting across caste and religion.

Today, the people infuriated at the anarchy, loot and crime in general and police brutality in particular have hit the streets. There is visible disenchantment against the regime particularly among the youths and students who have no scope for employment. The youths who were in their 20's when Laloo Yadav took the reigns of the state are in the 30's now and still jobless. And those who were in their 30's are now in the 40's losing all hopes of employment.

The violent protests on the streets of Bihar symbolised the anger of this vast mass of unemployed youths. And this generation of frustrated young people is a major cause of worry to Laloo Yadav.

But to their disappointment, the disenchanted youths find another set of "selfish, opportunist and power hungry" leaders fuelling the fire to attain their objective of usurping power from Laloo Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi. The state's voters, comprising of Hindus and Muslims, vividly remember the likes of Fernandes joining Laloo Yadav in abusing "LK Advani and communal forces like RSS and VHP" at the top of his voice after the demolition of the Babri mosque. They have seen him use the mass base and caste base of Laloo Yadav in winning the polls from Muzaffarpur in 1989, 1991 and 1992 and enjoy the fruits of power with "secular forces." And now they are also watching him defend the Narendra Modi dispensation in Gujarat and stay in power comfortably with the ones he abused not long ago. His other NDA colleagues are hardly different from him.

And if Laloo Yadav has "dons" like Md Shahabuddin and Surendra Yadav to unleash a reign of terror in the state, George Fernandes and his party has the likes of Sunil Pandey, Surajbhan and Rajen Tiwary to terrorise the voters and loot booths for his Samata Party.

Thus, the people of the state find themselves caught between the devil and the deep sea. They are angry at the present regime. But they hardly find a ray of hope in the equally discredited NDA leaders.

Even his opponents admit that Laloo Yadav individually has the biggest mass base for he enjoys the support of a sizeable section of backward classes and Muslims in the state. The RJD chief may not be enjoying the support of the masses cutting across all the castes and religions. But he is the leader of the numerically preponderant caste and religious groups.

But then the NDA too has leaders who thrive on their appeal in certain castes and religious groups. It has hardly any leader whose appeal cuts the barrier of caste and creed. If the Samata Party leaders have the Kurmis as their "core support base" the BJP derives its sustenance from the powerful upper castes and Hindutva forces.

But the NDA's tragedy is that it has no leader who in his individual capacity enjoys the support of as big a caste and religious group as Laloo Yadav enjoys. The RJD president belongs to a caste, which alone are about 15 per cent of the state's population. Besides, he enjoys the whole support of the Muslims who constitute about 13 per cent of the state's voters.

And the Muslims who are a key factor in deciding the course of politics in the state have no basis to trust the BJP or the NDA particularly after the mindless slaughter of their brethren in Gujarat.

The only way for the NDA to nail Laloo Yadav is to ensure unity among its constituents and bring other leaders enjoying support of their respective castes in its fold. But it seems to be a distant dream.

The Samata Party is on the verge of a split with Nitish Kumar and George Fernandes set to part ways. And ironically, this split is underway when there is a mass upsurge against the state administration. Ram Vilas Paswan who is a powerful leader of Paswans in the state has deserted the NDA. Moreover, the BJP and other constituents have numerous claimants for the chief minister's post. It's difficult for the "power and post hungry" politicians of various NDA constituents to accept a particular person as an alternative to the Laloo-Rabri regime and carry out a protracted agitation under his leadership.

Moreover, the divided NDA faces a "smart" Laloo Yadav who has developed an uncanny knack to ride roughshod over any crisis. There is no denying the fact that he is under pressure as for the first time he has been witnessing some sort of a mass upsurge against his administration and police. The fake encounters and police barbarism are not a new thing in the state. But the cold-blooded killing of the three innocent youths by the police in the state capital has now burst into a violent upsurge for the people were nursing a grouse against the anarchy unleashed by the police-criminal-politician nexus for long.

But himself a product of the JP led student movement, Laloo Yadav sensed the gravity of the situation sooner than expected. He soon got the "guilty" officer-in-charge of the Sashtri Nagar police station, Samshi A Alam, arrested and got the fake encounter case handed over to the CBI. His opponents had the solace that Laloo gave the case to the CBI under their pressure. But then, the RJD chief has snatched the handle from the Opposition to beat him by giving the case to the CBI. The BJP demanded the CBI to inquire the case.

And Laloo Yadav has proved his skill to turn the table on his opponents time and again. He may soon begin shouting that the CBI is shielding the culprits of a fake encounter "at the Centre's behest" if the central agency delayed prosecuting the police officials and shop owners responsible for the death of three youths.

Nalin Verma
The author is The Statesman’s Patna-based Special Representative.